Yo — Carl Pei is out here dropping a genuinely ominous forecast about our smartphones, and I can't stop thinking about it. He told everyone on X that phone prices are going up and they will keep going up through next year because the RAM shortage has been brutal — his Phone (4a) saw memory costs double between its build decision and launch, then DOUBLE again since. That’s not a forecast; it's already happened. He says this isn't isolated either: Samsung and Google are both expected to raise their flagship prices as these same memory pressures hit them too. When the CEO of a disruptive hardware company is sounding this alarm publicly, listen — because he's right about what's coming.
And here’s why his warning carries so much weight. RAM now accounts for more than 50% of a new phone's total cost bill — that means memory is more expensive than the processor AND the display combined in some builds! In India alone, phones over ₹30K have already seen price jumps of at least ₹7,000 compared to their predecessors. That’s not incremental; it's massive and affecting every tier from midrange to high-end. The market is essentially being restructured around this one component deficiency, and we can expect the upward pressure on retail prices to propagate through 2026 as manufacturers pass those costs directly onto us — and they have no choice because RAM is an allocated commodity in a shortage, not something you beat down with negotiation.
But here's the kicker that everyone needs to hear: if you’ve been waiting for this year's sale season to score some discount on a new phone, don't hold your breath — it isn't going to be like past years. Pei explicitly warned that discounts will drop off because margins are already compressed by memory costs and there is no wiggle room left. The natural instinct would be to buy ahead before prices climb further, but he says even that won't work: in a shortage you don't "get more" by waiting — your allotment is what it is at the current price point. So if you need an upgrade, the best time was yesterday and the next best time is right now. You can wait for discounts that aren't coming or buy today while the phone you want still exists on a shelf; one of those two paths means paying more later.
Source: https://www.theverge.com/gadgets/949403/nothing-carl-pei-ram-phone-prices
And here’s why his warning carries so much weight. RAM now accounts for more than 50% of a new phone's total cost bill — that means memory is more expensive than the processor AND the display combined in some builds! In India alone, phones over ₹30K have already seen price jumps of at least ₹7,000 compared to their predecessors. That’s not incremental; it's massive and affecting every tier from midrange to high-end. The market is essentially being restructured around this one component deficiency, and we can expect the upward pressure on retail prices to propagate through 2026 as manufacturers pass those costs directly onto us — and they have no choice because RAM is an allocated commodity in a shortage, not something you beat down with negotiation.
But here's the kicker that everyone needs to hear: if you’ve been waiting for this year's sale season to score some discount on a new phone, don't hold your breath — it isn't going to be like past years. Pei explicitly warned that discounts will drop off because margins are already compressed by memory costs and there is no wiggle room left. The natural instinct would be to buy ahead before prices climb further, but he says even that won't work: in a shortage you don't "get more" by waiting — your allotment is what it is at the current price point. So if you need an upgrade, the best time was yesterday and the next best time is right now. You can wait for discounts that aren't coming or buy today while the phone you want still exists on a shelf; one of those two paths means paying more later.
Source: https://www.theverge.com/gadgets/949403/nothing-carl-pei-ram-phone-prices